Tigers' Verlander set to face Red Sox, Buchholz

Baseball Betting Lines

08/01/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox are set for the rubber match of their three-game weekend series at Fenway Park this afternoon.

Detroit (AL Central) and Boston (AL East) are both in third place in their respective divisions and have to be considered long shots to challenge for a title this year.

The Tigers will send ace Justin Verlander to the hill this evening, and he owns an impressive 12-6 record with a 3.74 ERA. Verlander pitched fairly well against Tampa on Tuesday, allowing three earned runs on five hits in eight innings, but he was handed the loss in that road affair. The veteran righty has 130 strikeouts in 137 1/3 innings.

Verlander has yet to face Boston this season and is 2-2 lifetime against the Red Sox with a 3.90 ERA.

Slated to oppose Verlander is Clay Buchholz, the young Boston right-hander who has been one of the team's best players to date. Buchholz is 11-5 with a 2.71 ERA and allowed just one earned run in seven innings of a victory over the Angels on Monday. He has one complete game in 17 appearances this year.

Buchholz is 1-0 against Detroit this season and 1-1 lifetime against the Tigers in three games.

David Ortiz provided some late-game dramatics yet again on Saturday, belting a game-winning three-run double in the ninth inning to lift the Red Sox to a 5-4 victory over the Tigers.

Ryan Perry, who came into the game for the Tigers in the seventh, began the ninth by allowing a leadoff single to Darnell McDonald and was lifted in favor of Phil Coke (6-2).

Coke was able to induce a fly out from Marco Scutaro, but Jed Lowrie followed with a pinch-hit double to send McDonald to third. After intentionally walking Kevin Youkilis to load the bases, Ortiz blasted a double to deep center to plate all three runners and win the game.

Ortiz's hit comes one game after his ninth-inning grand slam nearly gave Boston another comeback win, falling just one run short in Friday's 6-5 defeat in the series opener. The rally made a winner of Hideki Okajima (4-3), who threw one scoreless frame.

Ryan Kalish, making his major league debut, added two hits, an RBI and a run scored for the Red Sox, who have won six of nine but finished July at a mediocre 12-13. McDonald finished 2-for-4 with an RBI in the win.

"I just never felt this much energy in a stadium," Kalish said. "This is Fenway Park, this has been around forever. A three-run walk-off double is something that -- you watch on TV with all those guys freaking out, and I was one of those guys freaking out today. It was a lot of fun."

Miguel Cabrera clubbed his 26th home run of the season for the Tigers, who have lost five of six. Max Scherzer was denied the win despite allowing just one run on nine hits and a walk while fanning three in 6 1/3 frames.

"It was a very good ball game. Scherzer pitched extremely well, really very, very well," said Tigers manager Jim Leyland. "We were a little hamstrung today. Last night's bullpen situation really took a toll on today's game."

Boston has won 12 of its last 17 overall versus Detroit.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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